How Consumer Confidence Affects the Impact of Housing and Stock Market Wealth and Consumption? Evidence from Asian Countries [Bagaimana Kepercayaan Konsumen Memengaruhi Wealth Effect? Pasar Perumahan dan Pasar Saham terhadap Konsumsi? Bukti Empiris dari Negara-Negara Asia]
Heru Santoso, Takeshi Inoue
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Abstract
This study explores the effect of consumer confidence in the impact of housing market and stock market wealth on private consumption for a panel of 10 Asian countries. This study using quarterly data from the 1st quarter of 2010 to the 4th quarter of 2017 and applies panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) method to assess the long-term relationship between variables. The result shows that the inclusion of consumer confidence changes the previous impact of housing market wealth and stock market wealth on consumption. Particularly, the interaction between consumer confidence and housing market wealth has a positive and significant impact on consumption, which is different from the previous insignificant impact of housing market wealth on consumption. On the other hand, the interaction between consumer confidence and stock market wealth has a negative significant impact on consumption, which is different from the previous positive significant impact of stock market wealth on consumption. In addition, the supplementary findings of this study show (1) countries with higher financial sector development have stronger housing market and stock market wealth effect than countries with lower financial sector development and (2) countries with higher income level have stronger housing market and stock market wealth effect than countries with lower income level.
Keywords: consumer confidence, consumption, housing market wealth, stock market wealth, panel FMOLS
Abstrak
Studi ini mengeksplorasi pengaruh kepercayaan konsumen terhadap wealth effect dari pasar perumahan dan pasar saham terhadap tingkat konsumsi di 10 negara Asia. Studi ini menggunakan data triwulanan dari kuartal pertama tahun 2010 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2017 dan menggunakan metode panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) untuk melihat hubungan jangka panjang antar variabel. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa kepercayaan konsumen berpengaruh terhadap wealth effect dari pasar perumahan dan pasar saham terhadap tingkat konsumsi. Secara rinci, interaksi dari kepercayaan konsumen dan wealth effect dari pasar perumahan memiliki dampak positif yang signifikan terhadap tingkat konsumsi, berbeda dengan wealth effect dari pasar perumahan yang sebelumnya tidak signifikan terhadap tingkat konsumsi. Di lain sisi, interaksi antara kepercayaan konsumen dan wealth effect dari pasar saham memiliki dampak negatif yang signifikan terhadap tingkat konsumsi, berbeda dengan wealth effect dari pasar saham yang sebelumnya positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat konsumsi. Selain itu, hasil studi ini juga menunjukkan bahwa (1) negara-negara dengan perkembangan sektor keuangan yang lebih tinggi memiliki wealth effect dari pasar perumahan dan pasar saham yang lebih kuat dibandingkan negara-negara dengan perkembangan sektor keuangan yang lebih rendah dan (2) negara-negara dengan tingkat pendapatan yang lebih tinggi memiliki wealth effect dari pasar perumahan dan pasar saham yang lebih kuat dibandingkan negara-negara dengan tingkat pendapatan yang lebih rendah.
Kata kunci: kepercayaan konsumen, konsumsi, wealth effect pasar perumahan, wealth effect pasar saham, panel FMOLSKeywords
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