Potensi Penurunan Pajak dan Strategi Kebijakan Pajak untuk Mengantisipasi Dampak Pandemi Covid-19: Perspektif Ketahanan Nasional

Warsito Warsito; Palupi Lindiasari Samputra

doi:10.22212/jekp.v11i2.1933

Potensi Penurunan Pajak dan Strategi Kebijakan Pajak untuk Mengantisipasi Dampak Pandemi Covid-19: Perspektif Ketahanan Nasional

Warsito Warsito, Palupi Lindiasari Samputra

10.22212/jekp.v11i2.1933

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Abstract

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has had a major negative impact on economic and taxation aspects. Indonesia’s economic growth was only 2.97 percent (first quarter of 2020), then became -5.32 percent (second quarter of 2020). Economic downturn increases the potential loss of tax revenue as the main source of state revenue so that an appropriate strategy and policies are needed to anticipate it. The objectives of this study are (1) projecting potential loss of Corporate Income Tax (CIT), Employee Income Tax (EIT), and Domestic Value Added Tax (VAT) in 2020, and (2) formulating tax policy strategy to anticipate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic from the national resilience perspective. This study uses Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method to project the potential loss of CIT, EIT, and Domestic VAT in 2020 and Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis to formulate tax policy strategies. The results showed a potential loss of CIT, EIT, and Domestic VAT income in 2020 amounted to IDR71.748.166.578.327 (10,41 percent). This potential loss is due to decreased consumption, economic downturn, and tax incentive policies. The government can implement several tax policy strategies to anticipate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, namely tax priority strategies, internal strengthening strategies, collaboration and supervision strategies, and support and economic recovery strategies.

Keywords: SARIMA, SWOT, tax policy strategy, the Covid-19 pandemic, national resilience

Abstrak

Pandemi Corona Virus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) menimbulkan dampak negatif yang besar terhadap aspek ekonomi dan perpajakan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal I 2020 hanya sebesar 2,97 persen kemudian menjadi -5,32 persen pada kuartal II 2020. Perlambatan ekonomi meningkatkan potensi kehilangan penerimaan pajak sebagai sumber utama pendapatan negara sehingga diperlukan strategi dan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengantisipasinya. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) memproyeksikan potensi kehilangan penerimaan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) Badan, PPh Pasal 21, dan Pajak Pertambahan Nilai Dalam Negeri (PPN DN) tahun 2020, dan (2) merumuskan strategi kebijakan pajak untuk mengantisipasi dampak pandemi Covid-19 dengan menggunakan perspektif ketahanan nasional. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average untuk memproyeksikan potensi kehilangan penerimaan PPh Badan, PPh Pasal 21, dan PPN DN tahun 2020 dan analisis Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) untuk merumuskan strategi kebijakan pajak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan potensi kehilangan penerimaan PPh Badan, PPh Pasal 21, dan PPN DN tahun 2020 adalah sebesar Rp71.748.166.578.327 (10,41 persen). Potensi kehilangan penerimaan pajak tersebut disebabkan oleh penurunan konsumsi, perlambatan ekonomi, dan kebijakan insentif pajak. Pemerintah dapat menjalankan beberapa alternatif strategi kebijakan pajak dalam rangka mengantisipasi dampak pandemi Covid-19, yaitu strategi prioritas pajak, strategi penguatan internal, strategi kolaborasi dan pengawasan, serta strategi dukungan dan pemulihan ekonomi.

Kata kunci: SARIMA, SWOT, strategi kebijakan pajak, pandemi Covid-19, ketahanan nasional

Keywords

SARIMA, SWOT, strategi kebijakan pajak, pandemi COVID-19, ketahanan nasional

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22212/jekp.v11i2.1933